future

Every September, leading up to the Formula One race, Singapore hosts a conference called All That Matters. Thinkers, creators, and entrepreneurs from all over Asia gather to talk about the latest developments in sports, tech, marketing, gaming and music. I try to go every year, because in many aspects, Asia is already living in the future. (Actually, that’s incorrect. They’re living in the present; it’s parts of the West that are clinging to the past. But I digress.)

Artificial intelligence was front and centre for many of the sessions, especially those dealing with music. There was much discussion about how AI will factor into things like music creation, music distribution and copyright. I took notes.

The internet is changing again

The internet we’ve been used to is once again changing rapidly. The browser wars are back, too, thanks to searches turbocharged by AI. I’ve been trying out Comet, a brand-new browser from the people behind the AI program Perplexity. It still has some rough edges, but I can see myself liking it better and using it more than Google. Then again, Google has its own AI in the form of Gemini, which has been going up against Microsoft’s Co-Pilot.

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How AI assisted The Beatles and the impact it has on the music industry

Music-creating AI programs are about to have a moment

The last quarter century has been about changes in consumption: CDs to MP3s to piracy to streaming, with a detour back into vinyl. The next decade will see major shifts in creation. Ignore and disparage that all you want, but it’s going to happen.

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When it comes to artificial music creation, the big players are Suno and Anthropic, two generative AI programs that keep getting better when it comes to making music based on user prompts. Although both are deep in litigation with rightsholders and labels, expect licensing deals to be hammered out with the major labels sooner rather than later. This means more human-created music will be used to feed the models behind AI programs. By this time next year, these programs will be able to analyze trillions of data points when responding to prompts. More data points means (theoretically) more realistic and — this is key — emotional music. Predictions are that this will set off a new era for the recorded music industry.

One way that will happen is a simplification of user interfaces. One of the biggest problems with any computer program is learning how to use it. Today, the thinking is the less user interface (UI), the better. We’re approaching a situation where the programs will say, “Just tell me what to do and I’ll do it by pulling all the tools that exist in the cloud.” Already, we have programs that will return produced music if you just hum an idea into it.

But what about artists?

The bulls outweighed the bears on this one. Here’s how AI might benefit musicians very soon.

• With AI, fans will have a chance to collaborate more directly with artists, contributing directly to intellectual property. They’ll be involved in “world-building,” the creation and execution of an artist’s vision, which might lead to monetization for fans. In other words, fans will co-create new material with their favourite musicians. Up until now, fans have invested a lot of money in artists. New tech will allow artists to give something back to the fans.
• Artists should — should! — benefit from the negotiations between labels and publishers and generative AI companies. This will be a new form of licensing that could — could! — be more lucrative and longer-lasting than the revenue derived from streaming.
• On that note, indie and emerging artists may be the ones to benefit the most.
• The music being fed into these models is from all over the world. Artists who learn to use AI as a music creation tool will have access to many, many more influences than they do today. They’ll all be stored in the AI models, waiting to be used.
• AI will allow the number of people who create music to explode even further. In Mozart’s day, perhaps 50,000 people were actively and regularly making music. Estimates today say the number is over 100 million. With AI, even more people will be able to. Not all of it will be good or deserve to be heard, but new stars will be minted.
• The cost of making music will drop further, even approaching zero.
• And what about this: Could the rise of AI music accelerate and increase the value of music created by humans?

Awfully rosy. What about the downsides?

Whenever any kind of promising technology comes along, there has always been a segment of humanity that will drag it down to its lowest common denominator. (Hello, social media!) There will also be knock-on effects. For example, if generative AI programs blow up the way they’re expected to, what happens to real-life musical instruments and the people who make them? What happens to traditional recording studios and the people who staff and equip them? Will people of the future bother to learn to play a traditional instrument by putting in 10,000 hours of practice?

There’s more. How will copyright be divided up? What about unintentional duplication, imitation or derivations of existing works? Is AI training fair use under current law? What about data privacy?

When music starts flooding out — maybe billions of new works a year — how will anyone ever discover new music? How will any artist of the future have a hope of being found? If we have billions of new songs every year thanks to AI, is it possible that highly average music will dominate the future? What happens 20 to 50 years from now when AI is indistinguishable from human intelligence?

And what about the current record label system? Is it ethical to sign an AI artist to a recording contract? (SPOILER: It’s already happening. Heard of Xania Monet yet?)

Everyone at the conference agreed that there are still more questions than answers when it comes to AI and music. But they also agree that this space is moving fast. Ignore it at your peril.

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