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Once Virginia Giuffre’s book was published last Tuesday and the outcry from British politicians had gotten very loud, the writing was on the wall: Prince Andrew will be forced out of Royal Lodge. He deserves to be punished more thoroughly than “being forced to give up his mansion,” but the fact remains that he was still living in Royal Lodge and the optics were pretty terrible. I theorized that we would get confirmation of his eviction by Friday. We did not, but we did get confirmation that Andrew is “in talks” with King Charles about leaving RL. Those talks include: how much money it will take for Andrew to give up his lease, where will Andrew (and presumably Sarah Ferguson) go post-RL and who will actually be financially supporting Andrew from here on out. From the Telegraph:

Prince Andrew is in advanced talks with the King’s representatives about quitting his Royal Lodge home, The Telegraph understands. Buckingham Palace is trying to crank up the pressure on the Prince to voluntarily give up his 30-room residence, from which he cannot legally be evicted under the terms of his “cast iron” lease. Discussions over the Prince’s living arrangements have been happening on a daily basis since reports of him living there rent-free caused a public outcry. However, it is understood that the Prince is resistant, and negotiations are continuing.

While the Prince’s initial response was to dig his heels in and cite the fact that he has 50 years left on his pre-paid lease, there is a growing sense of inevitability that he will now move out. The main sticking points are where he will live instead, and how much money he will receive in compensation for the millions he has spent on the property, which is leased from the Crown Estate.

Royal sources report a mood shift in the Palace in recent days, including a renewed determination to force Andrew out and a recognition that his daughters, Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie, need to be “looked after” and reassured that their own homes in St James’s Palace and Kensington Palace respectively will not be affected.

There had been hopes that the Prince’s living arrangements could be sorted out quickly to draw a line under the constant stream of negative publicity about his indiscretions – with rumours swirling on Thursday that he was hours away from moving – but finding a solution that works for all parties is proving difficult.

The King had hoped that by forcing his brother to drop his Duke of York title and other honours, the furore over his relationship with the paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein and with suspected Chinese spies would die down. However, it has failed to do so. Buckingham Palace will be keen to avoid a long, drawn-out parliamentary inquiry into any matter that touches on royal finances, which has given added urgency to the matter of resolving Andrew’s accommodation.

On the question of where the Prince will live if he leaves Royal Lodge, the most trouble-free solution would be to house him in one of the King’s privately-owned properties, most likely Sandringham or Balmoral, where he could have the use of one of the many self-contained homes on either estate. That would enable him to live rent-free without any cost to the public purse. But Andrew is not keen to be exiled to Norfolk or Scotland and wants to remain in London or Windsor, close to his daughters. Moving him to a smaller property on the Windsor estate would minimise the public’s outrage at him living a life of taxpayer-subsidised luxury, but he would have to pay rent which he might not be able to afford. Moving him into Windsor Castle or Buckingham Palace would also risk accusations that he was being rewarded rather than punished, and there would be a cost to the public purse of accommodating him in buildings that belong to the nation.

Meanwhile, there is also the question of what would happen to Royal Lodge, as its proximity to Windsor Castle makes it difficult, if not impossible, to rent out privately. Under the terms of the lease, which he signed in 2003, the Prince is entitled to a refund of some of the money he paid up front, which included a £1m payment for the 75-year lease and more than £7.5m in refurbishment costs. If he leaves before next June, he will be in line for a refund of £557,596, which reduces by £185,865 each year until 2028, when he will be owed nothing.

The living arrangements of Andrew’s ex-wife, Sarah Ferguson, who has her own rooms in Royal Lodge, are an added complication. It is unclear whether she would move with the Prince or find somewhere to live on her own.

The Prince of Wales is understood to have been keen to stay out of the negotiations, as he remains on good terms with his cousins Beatrice and Eugenie, but has made it clear that he wants the matter resolved. In recent days, Prince William and the King have made it clear through their representatives that Beatrice and Eugenie are blameless in the furore and that their homes in the royal palaces are safe.

[From The Telegraph]

An interesting part of this piece was a discussion of how Andrew is digging in his heels specifically because he’s already put more than £10 million into Royal Lodge, and he’s using that to negotiate a much larger “settlement” from his brother. While I think this whole system is corrupt, whatever money Andrew negotiates for breaking his lease is not going to come from “the taxpayer” in any direct sense. It’s likely that Charles will do the same thing QEII did when she gave Andrew the money to settle with Virginia Giuffre: take the money out of the Duchy of Lancaster funds, which are considerable. Which is the whole ballgame for Andrew, and what he’s been saying since 2023: if you want me to give up RL, then you better be prepared to write me an eight-figure check. If anything, Andrew’s position is probably strengthened right now because Charles really, really needs to get Andrew out of Royal Lodge and cauterize this PR bleed before Parliament starts investigating the whole rotten system.

As for where Andrew could live post-Royal Lodge… it’s clear that Charles wants to put him in Frogmore Cottage, but the Telegraph says that Prince William might have a problem with that, plus Andrew would still be pretty visible. There’s Wood Farm, part of the Sandringham estate, and that’s where Prince Philip retired from public life. The Telegraph suggests Craigowan Lodge, on the Balmoral estate, which is apparently close to the golf course. There were also rumors of Charles sending Andrew to Castle of Mey in Scotland, but I really don’t think that will happen. Mostly because… Charles still spends a few weeks a year there, and his foundation basically operates the castle now. My guess is that they’ll end up sending Andrew to Sandringham. Wood Farm sounds like the best bet, he would be out of the way in Norfolk yet his daughters could still easily travel to see him if they wanted to.

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