Wherever the AMC distributed Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl lands at the box office, consider it unprecedented.
Not just in the mere fact that the No. 1 exhibitor in the world is releasing another one of her concert films, rather no other motion picture studio ever has dated a wide release two weeks out on an extremely low P&A campaign, largely focused on the social media push of its star, to what is expected to be a No. 1 haul at the box office.
Domestic estimates are $30M-$35M at 3,500 locations for the movie which is timed to the release of the 14x Grammy winner’s 12th studio album. International, where the movie is on sale in more than 50 markets, is looking at another $8M-$10M for a global bow on the high-end of $45M. Ala Eras Tour, the box office is largely driven by U.S./Canada.
Still a secret at the time of this post is exactly who directed this anticipated mix of lyrics music videos and docu bits.
Note this, even if Showgirl buckles with a $25M U.S./Canada opening, it ain’t a bad thing. It’s hard for some to read Swifties on tracking; the singer’s last AMC Concert movie, The Eras Tour, looked like a $100M+ opening, but filed the second best start stateside in October with $93.2M (behind 2019’s Joker which opened to $96.2M). Right now, women under 25 in first choice are huge at a 25 versus women over 25 (9) and men which are in the low single digits.
In first-day sales, we already told you that Showgirl had $15M, with AMC seeing their sixth biggest first day presales ever with around $7.5M. Sources say presales are now north of $20M. Showgirl is having a one weekend play, and there aren’t any Thursday previews.
At the end of the day, it’s all about selling albums for Swift. There just happens to be some movie tickets that can be sold along the way.
Some of Swift’s PR stunts include an appearance on the Graham Norton show in the UK on Friday, and there’s also a Spotify pop-up experience in NYC that began yesterday and runs through Oct. 2.
Swift will appear on The Tonight Show on Oct. 6 and Late Night With Seth Meyers on Oct. 8. It would not be shocking if she suddenly made a cameo on the Saturday Night Live season 51 opener this weekend.
Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection
In a weekend where A24’s Dwayne Johnson movie, The Smashing Machine, was expected to rally, Swift’s arrival stole PLFs from that movie, as well as Warner Bros.’ second weekend of Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. Showgirl will now share PLFs with the Na’vi as Disney has the 3D re-release of James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water which at 2,100 is expected to do $3M-$4M. The third highest grossing movie ever at $2.3 billion worldwide (seventh domestic at $684M) will have a sneak peek of Avatar: Fire & Ash at the end of the film (each theater features one of three rotating glimpses).
While Avatar 2 will have 90% of the Imax, One Battle After Another will hold onto its Imax 70MM auditoriums. The hope is that the Leonardo DiCaprio movie eases -40% or better with around $13M. Currently, in its first five days at the box office with a running cume of $27.7M, -2% compared to the same frame as Killers of the Flower Moon two years ago.
‘The Smashing Machine’
A24
Smashing Machine, which was made for net $50M production cost, largely covered by foreign presales, hopes for a $13M-$17M opening at 3,000 theaters, down from its initial $20M projection. The Benny Safdie directed movie is best with men over 25 in first choice. Reviews out of Venice (where Johnson cried during the standing ovation) and TIFF are at 76% certified fresh. Any optimism lies in the Johnson faithful and WWE fans showing up. The movie follows mixed-martial arts and UFC champion Mark Kerr’s wrestling tours in Japan, his struggle with drug addiction and turbulent marriage with his wife, played by Emily Blunt.
Bleecker Street has the Mercedes Bryce Morgan directed erotic thriller, Bone Lake, in 1,045 sites, also in the low single digits. The movie, which world premiered at Fantastic Fest, stands at 94% fresh with critics. Pic’s blurb: A couple’s vacation at a secluded estate is upended when they’re forced to share the mansion with a mysterious couple. A dream getaway spirals into a nightmarish maze of sex, lies, and manipulation, triggering a battle for survival.
IFC’s Good Boy at around 1,650 theaters, is also in the low single digits. The Ben Leonberg directed and co-written comedy horror thriller follows a loyal dog who moves to a rural family home with his owner. The he discovers supernatural forces lurking in the shadows and does what a brave pup must do to protest those he loves the most. Outlook is also low single digits with a RT critics score of 93% fresh.
