Race

The Oscar race has one established frontrunner, which is often not the ideal place to be. As it happens, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) auteur Ryan Coogler was checking out the competition at Telluride this Labor Day weekend, which unveiled a healthy slate of Oscar contenders.

Best Picture Contenders

One movie emerged that could challenge “Sinners” in multiple categories: Oscar-winner Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”) delivered heart-wrenching family drama “Hamnet” (Focus), featuring two powerhouse lead performances from Paul Mescal and Jessie Buckley as William and Agnes Shakespeare. Based on Maggie O’Farrell’s 2020 bestseller, the film tracks their early romance and marriage and the birth of three children, two girls and a boy, Hamnet. Their lives are rocked by grief when they lose Hamnet to the plague, and Shakespeare buries himself in writing the tragedy “Hamlet.”

The directors will support Zhao’s meticulous period craftsmanship and scriptwriting with O’Farrell, along with the tech categories Cinematography, Production and Costume Design, Score, and Editing — and of course Mescal and Buckley are top contenders for Best Actor and Best Actress, respectively. How will it do at the box office? Critics are raving (Metascore: 95), but it was a favorite with audiences as well. Sometimes it feels good to cry.

Also playing well at Telluride was Yorgos Lanthimos’ latest assault on audiences, timely sci-fi comedy-thriller “Bugonia” (Focus), which Will Tracy (co-writer of “The Menu”) adapted from a 2003 Korean movie. Lanthimos’ usual suspects Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons are both at the top of their form. Plemons plays a conspiracy nut who kidnaps a Big Pharma CEO (Stone), believing she’s an alien out to destroy the planet. Watching these two actors face off is great fun — until the torture begins. This movie won’t be for everyone (Metascore: 76), but Lanthimos (“The Favourite” and “Poor Things”) is beloved by Oscar voters. Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Actor, and Actress (Stone could also go supporting), and multiple crafts are likely possibilities — unless the movie bombs at the box office.

Netflix showcased several Best Picture contenders, including “The Shape of Water” Oscar-winner Guillermo del Toro’s 19th-century horror spectacle “Frankenstein,” starring Jacob Elordi as a terrifying, towering, but sympathetic monster, and Oscar Isaac as his abusive creator. Del Toro plays with a $120 million budget, and it shows. The well-reviewed film (Metascore: 75) could compete for Picture (if its horror elements aren’t too off-putting), Director, Actor and Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and multiple crafts including Cinematography, Production and Costume Design, Editing, and most especially, Original Score. The score from Oscar-winner Alexandre Desplat (“The Shape of Water,” “The Grand Budapest Hotel”), one of his best, carries the different tones of the movie. Netflix will give the film some theater play to qualify, but its box office won’t matter.

Also coming into Telluride from Venice was Noah Baumbach’s elegiac “Jay Kelly,” a portrait of an aging Hollywood star who resembles (and was written for) George Clooney, who is moving as a star assessing his life and the time not spent with his daughters. Adam Sandler also shines as the long-suffering manager who has sacrificed much of his life serving his needy boss. He could land a Supporting Actor nomination, his first. The entertaining movie ends on a satisfying note. It’s less of a critic’s picture (Metascore: 64) but plays well, and should satisfy Academy audiences who often respond to show business stories.

Neon will push Norway’s Cannes prize-winner “Sentimental Value” (Metacritic: 88) in multiple categories including Best Picture, director Joachim Trier (“The Worst Person in the World”), screenwriters Trier and Eskil Vogt, actors Stellan Skarsgard (long overdue for a nomination) and Renate Reinsve, and Best International Feature Film.

Other Contenders

Scott Cooper’s “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere” (Metascore: 69) could be a commercial success for Disney’s Twentieth Century Pictures, and proves that “The Bear” star Jeremy Allen White can carry a movie. Acting award nominations for him and Jeremy Strong as his manager Jon Landau are in the offing.

You can’t win them all. Edward Berger’s “Conclave” follow-up “Ballad of a Small Player” (Netflix) did not wow the critics (Metascore: 51) and crowds at Telluride, although Colin Farrell’s performance earned raves.

Building on its good will at Cannes was Richard Linklater’s Netflix pickup “Nouvelle Vague” (Metascore: 71), which is a delightful black-and-white homage to Jean-Luc Godard’s “Breathless,” recreating the making of the movie in 1959. The French cast is flawless, as is Zoey Deutch in a pixie cut as Jean Seberg. But which categories will it wind up in? Cinephiles will be charmed, and writers and directors will recognize Linklater’s chops. Cinematography is a competitive category. Which is why Netflix is pushing the movie for Best International Feature Film, given its French producers, cast, and crew.

Telluride tributee Jafar Panahi’s French-produced Palme d’Or winner “It was Just an Accident” (Neon) is another possibility (Metascore: 87). However, word is that this year the French committee may lean into a well-reviewed local production that played Cannes, animated feature “Arco” (Neon). Neon showed three possible Best International Feature contenders from Cannes at Telluride, including Brazil’s likely Oscar submission, “The Secret Agent” (Metacritic: 87).

Sony Pictures Classics brought one Oscar contender to Telluride, Linklater’s Berlin prize-winner “Blue Moon” (Metascore: 76) starring Ethan Hawke as declining songwriter Lorenz Hart. The movie is an emotional high-wire act that writers, directors, and actors will admire. Hawke could land his fifth Oscar nomination, and his fourth for collaborating with Linklater. The box-office prospects for this outside New York City are iffy, however.

A24 Sundance entry “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (Metacritic: 82) built up some steam for actress Rose Byrne, who gives a stellar performance as a mother overwhelmed by a special needs child. And Harris Dickinson’s “Urchin” (Metascore: 77) starring Un Certain Regard actor-winner Frank Dillane also played well.

Some of the movies playing at Telluride, like “H Is for Hawk,” which earned raves for Claire Foy, are looking for distributors; most of the available buyers have full slates.