When we wrote that “One Battle After Another” was unique in Paul Thomas Anderson’s filmography, one thing we didn’t count on was that general audiences would love the movie too. “One Battle After Another” made a modest $22.4 million domestic this weekend, but it also scored an “A” CinemaScore, something that PTA simply hasn’t done in his career.
Most of PTA’s movies, because they didn’t open wide, didn’t also receive the audience exit polling that other wide releases do, but the ones that were graded were “Boogie Nights,” which got a C; “Magnolia” with a C-; and “Punch Drunk Love” with a D+. We imagine some unsuspecting Adam Sandler fans stumbled into that one. It’s also one of the better exit-polling numbers for Leonardo DiCaprio in decades, as you’d have to go all the way back to “Titanic” and its A+ to see a film that scored better. Recent titles like “Killers of the Flower Moon” got an A- and “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” got a B.
It’s no guarantee, but an A is the type of thing a movie like “One Battle After Another” needs if it’s going to have any chance at long-tail success. Bringing in $22.4 million domestic, plus another $26.1 million internationally for a global total of $48.5 million, was a hair above initial projections. But with a budget of $130 million before marketing, you’d hope to see a little more if this movie is going to be in the black.
And no, dollars and cents aren’t everything, nor are Oscars, which this film should certainly get, but it does matter if Anderson or other filmmakers like him are going to keep getting ambitious and big bites at the apple, or if studios like Warner Bros. are going to continue taking risks. Warner Bros. now has eight movies to open No. 1 at the box office this year, and many of those, including “Minecraft,” “F1,” “Sinners,” and “Weapons,” are for original films, not sequels. It’s in everyone’s best interest for original ideas with big movie stars like “One Battle After Another” to do well.
So what would be a reasonable long-term expectation for “One Battle After Another”? Movies like “Weapons,” “Sinners,” and even Leo’s “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” all opened in the $40-48 million range, higher than “Battle,” but it could be eyeing similar multiples based on strong word of mouth. “Sinners” has had a staggering multiple of 5.8, a true sleeper hit that has defied all expectations, and the studio thinks that with the remarkable reviews “Battle” is receiving, something like that is not out of the question for this film.
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” had a domestic multiple of just shy of 3.5, as did “Weapons” this year. But a source points us to some other aggressive comps for eventual Best Picture winners like “Argo,” which opened to just $19.4 million and would do 7 times that domestically, or “The Departed,” which also stars DiCaprio, opened to $26.8 million from Warner Bros. and had about a 5 times multiple.
The best comparison might be to “Killers of the Flower Moon,” which in 2023 opened to a similar $23.2 million and had a multiple just shy of 3 to wind up at $68 million domestic. “Killers” also made more than half of its gross internationally, and “Battle” could wind up looking at similar ratios. But this film has had even better reviews, audience reaction, and is shorter, so outperforming isn’t out of the question. A multiple of 3 domestic would get it in the ballpark of $67 million, and twice that internationally could land it somewhere in the $134-140 million ballpark globally, surely a let down for a movie with as high a budget as “Battle” has. A movie like this really needs an epic word of mouth on par with “Sinners” to justify its price tag. If the movie, in Week 2,has a drop that’s under 30 percent (the drop for “Sinners” in weekend 2 was virtually non-existent), that’s a solid sign.
The good news is that “One Battle After Another” should hang on to its many premium screens for the long haul. The VistaVision showings will be active in their four current locations for about six weeks, and it should maintain the same 70mm footprint without ceding too many IMAX screens, though the re-release of “Avatar: The Way of Water” next week and “Tron: Ares” the week after could have something to say about that.
Not just that, but the movie has quickly been the source of memes on Film Twitter, and the WB marketing department is actively courting repeating viewings from celluloid-obsessed crazies by putting out a so-called punch card allowing you to check off every format you’ve managed to see the film in (we’ll skip the 4DX screening, thanks). It’s the type of movie too that, while the initial trailers didn’t do “One Battle After Another” a ton of favors in hinting at what the movie is actually about, audiences will quickly appreciate how ripped from the headlines and current the film seems once more people have actually gotten the chance to see it. You just have to have a little faith that audiences will find “One Battle After Another” eventually and that this is the type of movie we’ll still be talking about long past Oscars season.
