Predictions

Nine months into 2025, the machinery of Oscar campaigning has reached peak operational velocity. But beneath the familiar choreography lies something unprecedented: genuine uncertainty about who will emerge victorious.

The Academy has lit the first torch of awards season with the release of its initial wave of digital screeners. Seven modest offerings have been uploaded to its portal: “Becoming Led Zeppelin,” “Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight,” “Hello Beautiful,” “How to Train Your Dragon,” “KPop Demon Hunters,” “The Luckiest Man in America” and “The Ugly Stepsister.” These appetizers now populate the Academy Screening Room for more than 11,000 voting members — the first course in a sprawling feast of hundreds more titles set to drop weekly leading up to the 98th Academy Awards.

Yet this season, and also hinted by the past few years of Oscar predicting, we’re witnessing nothing less than the collapse of Hollywood’s established hierarchy.

For the first time in recent memory, no cinematic deity seems to be dominating the early landscape. There’s no Spielberg, no Scorsese — no filmmaker whose mere attachment to a project prompts industry genuflection before principal photography even begins. This absence of an ordained frontrunner has created something resembling actual democracy — unpredictable, messy and thrilling for awards obsessives, even as it unnerves studio strategists.

Unless Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” emerges from Venice with the force of “undeniability,” or Chloé Zhao’s period drama “Hamnet” delivers Shakespearean gravitas at Telluride, we’re confronting a field where previous Oscar winners may be relegated to spoiler status rather than frontrunners.

And let’s be honest, we should welcome that.

In an industry long governed by the assumption that past success predicts future triumph, this shift levels the playing field — at least somewhat — for up-and-coming auteurs and actors to make a meaningful impact.

Netflix is executing what insiders call a strategy to focus on its “holy trinity” of hopefuls. Noah Baumbach’s dramedy “Jay Kelly” pairs George Clooney with Adam Sandler — a calculated bridge between generations designed to spark cultural conversation. Alongside it stands Kathryn Bigelow’s thriller “A House of Dynamite,” bolstered by Idris Elba and Rebecca Ferguson. And, of course, del Toro’s much-anticipated “Frankenstein.”

Netflix has long understood that a successful Oscar campaign requires portfolio diversification — multiple entry points into voters’ consciousness rather than banking on a single prestige title.

A24’s potential masterstroke is the company’s attempt to recast Dwayne Johnson as a dramatic actor and legitimate Oscar contender in Benny Safdie’s “The Smashing Machine,” a sports biopic that pairs him with Emily Blunt, fresh off her “Oppenheimer” nomination. It’s audacious cultural arbitrage — leveraging Johnson’s populist appeal to expand the Academy’s demographic comfort zone. If successful, it could further redefine what Oscar-worthy casting looks like. How many of us thought the Academy would ever nominate a body-horror film like “The Substance” or and its star, Demi Moore?

Over at Venice, several international specialty titles serve as tactical wild cards. GKids’ anime “Scarlet,” Gianfranco Rosi’s Neapolitan nonfiction “Below the Clouds,” and Park Chan-wook’s South Korean drama “No Other Choice,” acquired by Neon, could all shake up category expectations.

Meanwhile, Alberto Barbera, Venice’s artistic director, has curated an out-of-competition section that could now function as sophisticated reputation management. Gus Van Sant returns with “Dead Man’s Wire” — his first major play since 2008’s “Milk” — starring Bill Skarsgård and Colman Domingo. Julian Schnabel’s “The Hand of Dante,” arriving 18 years after “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” will provide a new chance to see his name in the marquee.

Oscar Isaac appears in both Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” and Julian Schnabel’s upcoming film. This dual presence may renew awareness that, despite acclaimed performances in “Inside Llewyn Davis” (2013) and “A Most Violent Year” (2014), Isaac has yet to receive an Oscar nomination. His co-star Jacob Elordi could also emerge as a viable contender in what looks to be a highly competitive supporting actor race, going head-to-head with his Netflix counterpart Adam Sandler, who is rumored to deliver a standout turn in “Jay Kelly.” Let’s not forget Stellan Skarsgård is already an early frontrunner after Neon’s “Sentimental Value,” directed by Joachim Trier, was the runner-up at Cannes and will also play various fall festivals on the circuit.

Telluride’s secretive lineup continues to generate speculative — albeit organic — buzz. The Aug. 26 lineup, curated by Julie Huntsinger, is expected to include Edward Berger’s gambling thriller “Ballad of a Small Player,” starring Colin Farrell, and Scott Cooper’s Bruce Springsteen biopic “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” featuring Jeremy Allen White, who’s riding a two-Emmy streak (and a possible third) from “The Bear.”

While Netflix and Neon boast deep arsenals, it’s Focus Features that’s presenting its most audacious and dynamic lineup of contenders in years. In addition to Oscar winner Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet,” the indie studio will premiere Yorgos Lanthimos’ latest film, “Bugonia,” at the Lido at Venice, with Jesse Plemons, Emma Stone and newcomer Aidan Delbis — all rumored to deliver standout turns. Then comes the return of three-time Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis, who emerges from an eight-year retirement for the family drama “Anemone,” set to premiere at the New York Film Festival. He co-wrote the film with his son, Ronan Day-Lewis, who makes his directorial debut.

One A-lister set to command attention is Julia Roberts, making a triumphant return to the big screen in Luca Guadagnino’s “After the Hunt” from Amazon MGM Studios. The film, which premieres at Venice, marks the Oscar winner’s first major awards vehicle since “August: Osage County” (2013), following her Academy Award win for “Erin Brockovich” (2001). Early buzz suggests it could be a real head-turner, with a trailer that evokes the psychological tension of “Notes on a Scandal” and the artistic intrigue of “Tár.”

This season is sure to be challenging to navigate. And not only for strategists but for pundits alike.

The traditional awards season journey, from the National Board of Review to the Golden Globes and major guilds, will be disrupted by shifting timelines and evolving demographics. BAFTA and the Writers Guild of America have scheduled its nomination announcements until Tuesday, Jan. 27 — five days after the Oscar nominations are revealed. That means not a single industry-driven screenplay nomination, which would include those with AMPAS overlap, will be named before the Oscars’ big reveal.

As many know, the screenplay category has long been a vital component of a film’s chances at winning best picture. Only seven films have won best picture without a screenplay nomination: “Wings” (1927), “The Broadway Melody” (1928), “Grand Hotel” (1932), “Cavalcade” (1933), “Hamlet” (1948), “The Sound of Music” (1965) and “Titanic” (1997).

Studios are expected to mount highly focused and concentrated campaigns to ensure their screenwriters are not overlooked, in order to not making their ultimate Oscar goal, anymore difficult.

Nonetheless, in the last decade, simply following “Oscar stats” has proven less reliable. Consider “CODA’s” best picture win for Apple with zero technical nominations, or how “Everything Everywhere All at Once” transformed from quirky genre piece to a cultural juggernaut. Traditional metrics are becoming archaeological relics in the predicting world.

I’ll admit, predictions made in August are little more than sophisticated brand positioning. Early frontrunner status tends to reflect industry esteem — not necessarily voter enthusiasm for films nobody has watched yet. Remember: Few pundits had 2016’s “Moonlight” on their radar before it premiered at Telluride and went on to topple the musical “La La Land” in the eleventh hour.

The Academy’s demographic transformation has created ideological and generational rifts that go beyond artistic taste. Kleber Mendonça Filho’s “The Secret Agent,” bolstered by a Cannes best director win, could challenge American dominance in storytelling with another strong Brazilian entry. Jafar Panahi’s Palme d’Or winner “It Was Just an Accident” can do the same — especially from an auteur who has been imprisoned for his art. That’s a narrative that can go far if it manages to become France’s official submission, if it can fend off Richard Linklater’s “Nouvelle Vague,” which Netflix picked up at Cannes.

The monthlong marathon from Venice to the New York Film Festival remains the industry’s most transparent meritocracy — where artistic quality can still (occasionally) overcome marketing budgets and studio influence. Laura Poitras and Mark Obenhaus’s decision to thread their Seymour Hersh documentary “Cover Up” through all four major festivals signals either supreme confidence or strategic necessity. That film will be looking for a U.S. distributor along the way.

The newly introduced best casting category adds another layer of uncertainty and complexity. Whether it becomes a stepping stone to best picture — perhaps like film editing — or might stand alone like BAFTA’s casting category, it will reshape campaign planning for years to come.

What emerges from this analysis is a simple truth: Oscar season has evolved beyond prediction models into something closer to a real democracy, believe it or not. It’s messier, less predictable and far more compelling. The festival circuit remains the battleground where artistic merit can triumph over institutional power. A long standing ovation can launch a campaign. A muddled response can tank one.

May the best story win.

The first official charts for best actor have been published. The overall Oscar predictions updates are below.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees below are in alphabetical order)

Best Picture
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
“Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Director
Noah Baumbach, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Guillermo del Toro, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***

Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Oscar Isaac, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Dwayne Johnson, “The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia” (Focus Features) ***

Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Julia Roberts, “After the Hunt” (Amazon MGM Studios)

Supporting Actor
Aidan Delbis, “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***

Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, “The Smashing Machine” (A24) ***
Zoey Deutch, “Nouvelle Vague” (Netflix)
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)

Original Screenplay
“Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures) — Will Arnett, Mark Chappell and Bradley Cooper
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix) — Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer ***
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) — Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler

Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Will Tracy
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Guillermo del Toro
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Chloé Zhao ***
“Nuremberg” (Sony Pictures Classics) — James Vanderbilt
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar

Casting
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Jennifer Venditti
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Robin D. Cook
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix) — Douglas Aibel and Nina Gold
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey

Animated Feature
“Arco” (Neon)
“In Your Dreams” (Netflix)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***

Production Design
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Nouvelle Vague” (Netflix)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Cinematography
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)

Costume Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Kiss of the Spider Woman” (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Film Editing
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***

Makeup and Hairstyling
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“Mother Mary” (A24)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Sound
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***

Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“The Fantastic Four: The First Steps” (Marvel Studios)
“How to Train Your Dragon” (Universal Pictures)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Tron: Ares” (Walt Disney Pictures)

Original Score
“After the Hunt” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix) — Nicholas Britell
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson ***

Original Song
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment)
“Sinners” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
TBA Elphaba Song from “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
TBA Glinda Song from “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Documentary Feature
“Cover Up” (U.S. Acquisition TBD) ***
“The Eyes of Ghana” (U.S. Acquisition TBD)
“Love + War” (National Geographic)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix)
“Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk” (U.S. Distribution TBD)

International Feature
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon) ***
“Palestine 36” from Palestine (U.S. Distributor TBD)
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon)
“Sirât” from Spain (Neon)

Top 5 projected Oscar leaders (films): “Sinners” (13); “Frankenstein” (12); “Wicked: For Good” (10); “Hamnet” (9); “Jay Kelly” and “Sentimental Value” (7)

Top 5 projected Oscar leaders (studios): Netflix (28); Warner Bros. (17); Focus Features (14); Neon (13); Universal Pictures (11)