Gamble

In a literal and figurative redrawing of the political map, Gavin Newsom‘s Proposition 50 has handily been passed by California voters.

A direct challenge to Donald Trump and his GOP MAGA forces’ gerrymandering attempt to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, the Golden State initiative allows redistricting to flip up to five Republican seats from California’s Congressional delegation to the Democrats. Replacing the state’s independent commission that usually makes such decisions, the redistricting would permit the Democratic dominated legislature in Sacramento to redraw the congressional district map for 2026 to 2030.

With victory called by CNN and Fox News just seconds after polls closed out West, Newsom’s win comes on a night that saw big Democratic wins in Virginia, New Jersey and for newly-minted Mayor Zohran Mamdani in New York City. Bringing big donors and national spotlight on Newsom, Prop 50 also puts the term-limited Democrat in the pole position for 2028.

While that election is not expected to be top of his agenda, the Governor is scheduled to speak tonight.

In fact, Newsom has already spoken about 2028 — through the prism of 2026.

Long trolling and suing Trump over masked ICE abductions, troops in LA, and more, the clearly ambitious Newsom said the not-so quiet thing out loud in late October and admitted he would “be lying” if he wasn’t thinking about a White House bid in his future. Putting some of his future post the 2026 midterms in the hands of “fate,” the increasingly combative governor said “I’m looking forward to who presents themselves in 2028 and who meets that moment, and that’s the question for the American people.”

Which is I’m running, in any other interpretation. 

It certainly didn’t hurt Newsom that the Arnold  Schwarzenegger-led opposition to Prop 50 seemed to fall apart soon after it started. Sure there were some TV ads and billboards on inland highways, but the impact proved muted.

In terms of cash, the Barack Obama supported Prop 50 saw the state race screaming money.

A big proponent of  Schwarzenegger’s 2010 California Citizens Redistricting Commission, the reclusive Charles Munger Jr.’s poured $30 million into TV ads and more to stop Prop 50. On the other side, billionaire Tom Steyer, who ran briefly for the Democratic POTUS nomination in 2020, doled out nearly $13 million for the measure. Netflix founder Reed Hastings donated $2 million to pro-Prop 50 forces. After former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s promise to raise $100 million to kneecap Prop 50 fizzled out, the California Republican Party put just over $10 million into an anti-Prop 50 campaign.

In maybe the surest measure of the confidence Newsom and team had in Prop 50 passing, last week organizers told donors to stop sending in money as they’d already met their nearly $130 million fundraising goal.

In another swipe at Trump’s authoritarianism moves, Newsom on September 20 signed into law on legislation that bans ICE and other from covering their faces and identities. Set to take effect on January 1, 2026,  the California’s Senate Bills 627, a.k.a. the “No Secret Police Act” is the first in the nation put into law the unmasking and identifying of ICE agents and others. Still hunting down migrants as well as attacking and arresting US citizens in California and other Blue States, the MAGA administration scoffed at the new laws as unenforcible, but the symbolism is apparent.

Earlier Tuesday, after a Trump temper tantrum over California mail-in voting and some Newsom mocking, the Governor’s cocky press team offered up some hard realities of politics in America in 2025.

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