Badlands

SATURDAY PM UPDATE: Dan Trachtenberg’s Predator: Badlands is now opening to $39M+ — a record domestic debut for the 20th Century Studios’ 38-year-old Predator franchise.

This comes after a great hold on Saturday of $14M, a mere -10% dip from Friday/previews of $15.6M. Predator: Badlands outstrips the previous series record held by Alien vs. Predator ($38.2M) which was a mid-August 2004 theatrical release. Here’s something we haven’t seen in a while at the box office (arguably going back to Conjuring: Last Rites and Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle in September)– a tentpole with an opening that grows throughout the weekend, while besting its tracking forecast. After a torturous October, finally some optimism at the box office.

In addition, the Trachtenberg, Ben Rosenblatt and John Davis production ranks as the second-best domestic opening ever for actress Elle Fanning after 2014’s Maleficent ($69.4M) and ahead of 2019’s Maleficent: Mistress of Evil ($36.9M).

We’ll have more updates in the morning.

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: 20th Century Studios’ Predator: Badlands is looking good, knock on wood, coursing to a near-record opening for the franchise, around $37M, after a $15.6M Friday/previews. It also has the best CinemaScore a Predator movie has ever seen with A-. As we told you, the previous highs for a Predator movie were the original 1987 installment and 1990 sequel, both of which earned a earned B+. That audience score is further boosted by the Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak “definite recommend” of 78% and five stars — which is platinum for any movie.

It’s clear that audiences are enjoying this version of Predator from director-producer-writer Dan Trachtenberg and producers Ben Rosenblatt and John Davis, hence the higher-than-expected ticket sales, which were expected to be around the $25M range. The movie’s momentum is in a better position than Disney’s early-October attempted tentpole Tron: Ares, thanks to word of mouth. At the end of the day, no matter how much stunting a studio does in a highly competitive social media-streaming landscape, the movie ultimately sells itself, meaning audiences discover it upon viewing and spread the gospel from there. Both Tron: Ares and Predator: Badlands dazzled Hall H at San Diego Comic-Con with equally memorable stunts; the lead character of the latter, Dek, stepped onstage to scan the audience with his eye vision.

Switching ratings, i.e. from R to PG-13, hasn’t dented the appeal for the alien-killer movie, this particular installment casting the series villain as the protag. That’s the hook as far as distinguishing itself from previous Predator movies. Rather than just a one-sheet with the fleshy, toothy-faced guy in a profile shot, Badlands one-sheets went hardcore sci-fi with epic shots of him battling creatures, etc. The problem with the static opening between 2018’s The Predator and 2010’s Predators opening to around the same number of $25M stemmed from the campaigns being quite similar and not selling anything fresh. There was no one-up.

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What’s interesting, though, is that going to PG-13 might not necessarily have brought in a younger audience: Badlands only pulled in 5% for the 13-17 demo. Compared to 2018’s The Predator, it shows that older males still come out for the IP (57% to 45%), as well as older females (about the same between both installments at 22%). However, men under 25 shrunk between The Predator and Badlands (from 21% share to 16%) in addition to women under 25 (11% to 5%). Diversity demos are 44% Caucasian, 26% Latino and Hispanic (bigger than The Predator‘s 23%), 15% Black and 8% Asian American.

Predator: Badlands has nearly all the Imax and premium large-format screens, which are driving 53% of the weekend. The pic is playing best in the South Central and West regions, with the latter seeing 43% of the gross coming from there vs. a norm of 38% for all other titles in the marketplace. The AMC Burbank is Badlands’ best theater in the country with over $59K to date.

With a social media universe of 244M across TikTok, Facebook, YouTube, Instagram and X, Badlands reach is very similar to the reach of last year’s Alien: Romulus before opening, that being 246M. Elle Fanning is promoting to her 6.7M fans.

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Social media data corp RelishMix remarks, “Convo runs positive for Predator: Badlands as fans are lit up at the idea of expanding the Yautja universe beyond Earth, praising its young-blood narrative and connections to Prey and Predators (2010). Enthusiasts loved the lore depth and ‘proving hunt’ concept, calling it ‘refreshing’ and ‘bad ass.’ Comments like ‘Looks fantastic — reminds me when people clowned on Prey and it was awesome,’ and ‘Teenage Yautja with something to prove? Sign me up,’ highlight genuine anticipation. Others noted the Monsterverse-style shift toward creature-led storytelling, celebrating it as ‘finally giving us the Predator story we’ve been waiting for.’

As far as the new upscale adult films, oy, nothing is mind-blowing gross wise. See below.

2. Regretting You (Par) 3,196 (-229) theaters, Fri $2.2M (+80%), 3-day $7.3M (-7%), Total $38.7M/Wk 3
The Constantin $30M production brought into Paramount by former Global Marketing and Distribution Boss Marc Weinstock is bound for $100M worldwide. Phenomenal hold here.

3. Black Phone 2 (Uni) 2,943 (-362) theaters, Fri $1.5M (-38%), 3-day $5.2M (-38%), Total $70M/Wk 4

4. Sarah’s Oil (AMZ) 2,410, Fri $1.7M 3-day $4.4M/Wk 1
The best of the adult bunch. Who knew? No surprise when you realize that it’s a Kingdom Story production (their fanbase knows about these faith-based films). A+ CinemaScore which is where faith-based audience scores live. Nothing shocking here: over 55 is 48% of the audience, 66% women. The Zachary Levi movie is playing where these pics play best in the South, South Central and Midwest with 63% of the gross coming from there compared to a norm of 44% for all other titles in the marketplace. The Southlake Pavilion in Atlanta is the movie’s top grossing location with just over $5K.

5. Nuremberg (SPC) 1,802 theaters, Fri $1.4M 3 day $3.8M/Wk 1
No CinemaScore, but great PostTrak exits of 5 stars, 76% definite recommend, and 93% positive to overshadow those middling reviews of 69% fresh. The over 55 crowd was prominent at 51% (they gave it an amazing 88% definite recommend), over 45 at 67%, and male leaning at 57% for the WWII drama. Pic is playing on the coasts with 48% of the gross coming from there versus 43% of all films in the marketplace. AMC Grove in LA is the top grossing multiplex with just over $13K. Caucasian 75%, Latino and Hispanic at 10%, 6% Black and 5% Asian American.

6. Bugonia (Foc) 2,043 theaters, Fri $1M (-43%), 3-day $3.7M (-26%), Total $12.5M/Wk 3

7. Chainsaw Man (Sony) 2,285 (-718) theaters, Fri $900K (-31%), 3-day $3.6M (-42%), total $38M/Wk 3

8. Die My Love (Mubi) 1,983 theaters, Fri $1M, 3-day $2.7M/Wk 1
A huge chasm between critics at 78% on Rotten Tomatoes and audiences who dismissed this Jennifer Lawrence-Robert Pattinson melodrama about a woman’s depression from Lynne Ramsay with a D+. Remember Lawrence’s other big swing from Darren Aronofsky, Mother! got an F back in 2017. Despite the great acting in Die My Love, this is a tough movie about a very sad situation; that’s hard if you want to lasso people off their couches. Can’t write this enough: Mubi paid $24M for domestic and multiple foreign rights on the movie (versus $12.5M they shelled out for The Substance; that hipster horror pic opened to $3.2M and did a 5.5x multiple with a final domestic of $17.5M). A 29% definite recommend on PostTrak is the kiss of death. Male leaning at 51%., 25-34 being the biggest show at 44% with 18-34 at 78%. Diversity demos are 60% Caucasian, 22% Latino and Hispanic, 9% Black, and 6% Asian American. Coastal play, which is what these upscale adult movies do, with 50% coming from the East and West. AMC Lincoln Square in NYC is the top grossing location with $12k.

9. Springsteen…(20th) 2,200 (-1260) theaters, Fri $637K (-24%) 3-day $2.2M (-39%)/Total $20.4M/Wk 3

10. Tron: Ares (Dis) 1,970 (-605) theaters, Fri $477K (-21%), 3-day $1.9M (-37%), Total $71.3M/Wk 5

11. Christy (Black) 2,184 theaters, Fri $600K, 3-day $1.25M/Wk 1
The biopic about female boxer Christy Martin, Black Bear finance’s foray into domestic theatrical distribution, gets a B+ CinemaScore better than A24’s MMA movie Smashing Machine which landed an B-. PostTraks are better with a solid 84% positive and a 59% definite recommend. Maybe this builds more momentum today off that and breaks into the top 10. Sydney Sweeney championed the movie all the way through including appearances last night at the AMC Century City with director David Michod. Black Bear put this theatrical release together quite quickly, taking their own movie off the table from domestic buyers and positioning it for an asap theatrical release post its TIFF world premiere. The town says we need more theatrical distributors in an environment where major studios like Paramount and Warner Bros could potentially collapse into each other. Let’s see where Black Bear winds up in the long run. It took a while for A24 to build-up its brand; Bling Ring with Emma Watson was one of its early releases and only grossed $5.8M before we got to the Hereditary, Uncut Gems, Everything Everywhere All at Once, etc.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: 20th Century Studios’ Predator: Badlands is creeping toward the second-best Friday start ever for the franchise at $14M, which would get the Dan Trachtenberg-directed movie to the second-best opening ever for a Predator movie at $33M. The John Davis-produced feature is booked at 3,725 theaters.

The best Friday and opening for a Predator movie belongs to 2004’s Alien v. Predator with $16.4M and $38.2M, respectively. Friday ticket sales of $14M includes the combined previews from Wednesday and Thursday of $4.8M.

Some might say, “Oh, well, this looks like Tron: Ares,” given how that movie a month ago posted a $14.4M Friday and a $33.2M start. But Predator: Badlands has some of the best reviews and audience scores for its franchise, plus it cost 52% less than the $220M pricetag of the Jared Leto movie.

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Second place goes to Paramount’s Colleen Hoover adaptation Regretting You with a third Friday of $1.9M and third weekend of $6.5M, -17%, at 3,196 theaters for a running total by Sunday of $37.9M.

At 2,943 theaters, it’s the fourth frame of Universal/Blumhouse’s The Black Phone 2 with $4.2M, -50%, after a $1.2M Friday and running cume through Sunday of $69M.

Fourth is Amazon MGM Studios/Kingdom Story/Wonder Project’s Sarah’s Oil is the best of the original adult bunch with $1.6M today, and $4.1M for the weekend at 2,410 theaters.

Focus Features’ third weekend (second wide) of Yorgos Lanthimos’ Bugonia is looking at $1.1M today at 2,043 theaters, $3.7M for the frame, -26%, for a total by EOD Sunday of $12.5M.

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Sony Pictures Classics’ Nuremberg starring Russell Crowe, Rami Malek, Michael Shannon, John Slattery and more is seeing $1.4M today for a $3.5M opening at 1,802 theaters.

FRIDAY AM: The Dan Trachtenberg-directed Predator: Badlands speared $4.8 million in previews, which includes both Wednesday fan and Thursday night shows.

The preview number is less than that of another sci-fi genre title, Alien: Romulus‘ $6.5M, which also was a franchise reboot for the revived 20th Century Studios under new owner Disney. That Fede Alvarez-directed revival went on to open to $42M stateside. But keep in mind that movie was R-rated and had a mid-August release in 2024. Also, Predator: Badlands, with its female-action-hero sensibility, also is getting comped by Disney sources to Ballerina, which did $3.8M in previews before a $24.5M opening in June. Badlands previews are also ahead of 2017’s Blade Runner 2049, which did $3.5M before a $12.5M Friday, and 3-day of $32.7M.

Also good news for Badlands at this point in time: Total previews here are ahead of The Predator, which did $2.5M in Thursday previews back in September 2018. That pic posted a $10.3M Friday on its way to a $24.6M start.

The 2004 crossover title Alien vs. Predator owns the franchise-record opening at the domestic B.O. with $38.2M. 2010’s Predators from director Nimród Antal and produced by Robert Rodriguez follows as the second-best U.S./Canada opening for the series at $24.7M. The forecast going into the weekend for Badlands was $25M+, hopefully the second-best start in the Predator franchise.

1987’s Predator and 1990’s Predator 2 own the best CinemaScores for the series conceived by Jim and John Thomas with a B+.

Predator: Badlands cost $105M net before marketing, shot in New Zealand with tax credits. Trachtenberg breathed new life into the Predator movies in August 2022 with the direct-to-Hulu Prey, which was the streamer’s most-watched premiere ever at the time. Critics believed the movie should have been booked in theaters, hence, here we are with Badlands.

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On the Rotten Tomatoes audience scale, Badlands is the fan favorite of the franchise with 96%, ahead of the original 1987 Arnold Schwarzenegger movie at 87%. Prey remains the most critically acclaimed in the alien series at 94%.

PREVIOUSLY: Amazon MGM Studios release of Kingdom Story’s Sarah’s Oil posted $460K in previews. The
Cyrus Nowrasteh-directed faith-based movie starring Zachary Levi, Sonequa Martin-Green and Garrett Dillahunt follows the true story of 11-year old Sarah Rector, an African American girl born in Oklahoma Indian Territory in the early 1900s who believes there is oil beneath the barren land she’s allotted and whose faith is proven right. No RT or audience scores.

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Black Bear Finance’s first domestic theatrical release under its new arm, Christy, starring Sydney Sweeney as boxer Christy Martin, posted $400K in previews last night. RT reviews stand at 67% fresh. The pic is going wide in north of 2,000.

Sony Pictures Classics and Walden Media’s WWII drama Nuremberg, booked at 1,700 theaters this weekend, started off with $210K last night in previews. The movie directed and co-written by James Vanderbilt stands at 71% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes from 76 reviews.

Mubi’s $24 million global acquisition Die My Love starring Robert Pattinson and Jennifer Lawrence is opening wide this weekend as well.

Top 5 for the week; note that Netflix’s Kpop Demon Hunters, which made $5.9M over the weekend, didn’t play the weekdays, we’re told.